Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Flip-Flops... Model Style















Hopefully the title didn't get your mind thinking of wearing flip-flops on a warm and sunny July afternoon. I am talking about a different kind of flip-flop. The models are flip-flopping between different scenarios for this weekend. Typically, each model has a slightly different opinion, but rarely are they so significantly apart from each other.

For example, the pictures above are snapshots of precipitation amounts for Saturday afternoon. The GFS is the model to the left, which is showing a much weaker scenario. The NAM is the model to the right, and it is still showing a powerhouse storm system that would create major travel dilemmas. From scouring through all of today's data, I can safely say that this storm will make its worst impact Saturday and Saturday night. If you have travel plans this weekend you might want to think about pushing them back to Sunday.

That is your analysis for Wednesday night. The timing of this storm system is fairly clear. The type still appears as though we will start as rain and eventually change over into snow, but the precipiation amounts are entirely up in the air at this point. Hopefully I will find some continuity in the models early tomorrow afternoon when I roll into work. -ADAM

1 comment:

Footville,WI said...

What kind of precip. are we expected to have up here, more snow than rain hopefully? and do you happen to know how much. Thanks.