I will start this post by stating that a forecast made for an event or season several months in advance is little more than an educated guess. That being said, this past week Dr. Bill Gray's Colorado State University group made a prediction calling for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes.The graphic to the left is the data regarding hurricanes in the Atlantic over the past 13 years. This timeframe is considered to be the period of the recent active hurricane phase. It shows the recent track record during El Nino, La Nina, and neutral years. Oddly enough Dr. Bill Gray's forecast is the exact average for each category over the past 13 years.
As you can see, hurricane activity is typically enhanced during La Nina/neutral years (thanks largely to the record year of 2005). As I'm sure you are well aware, we have been in a strong La Nina, but we are slowly starting to pull out of it. Even if the La Nina conditions fully disappear by the start of hurricane season (June 1st), we likely will still be in what would be considered a neutral year.
For more analysis on sea surface temperatures, wind shear, and African dust click here for Dr. Jeff Masters' Wunderblog. -ADAM
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