1) Will the different pieces come together at the right time?
2) Will the (possible) overnight thunderstorms clear out in time to get substantial heating?
If the answer to either one of those questions ends up being "no," then our severe risk is much lower. Unfortunately, we'll only know the answer tomorrow, a handful of hours prior to thunderstorm development.
In any event, based on what I've seen, read, etc., this appears to be the scenario that is most likely to play out... First, storms develop tonight somewhere in the Midwest and move southeast, much like what occurred this morning. No storms have developed yet, although with the warm front moving into a very unstable atmosphere and the low-level jet stream starting in the next few hours, I'd be surprised if nothing fired. Anyway, those storms would move through either here or nearby through the morning. While some clouds will likely linger, we should get enough sunshine in the region to get to 90° or pretty close to that mark. With such warm temperatures and
dewpoints into the 70s, there will be lots of energy available in the atmosphere (that energy is what the blobs of air use to be able to become buoyant - rise until they eventually become storms). Thunderstorms will probably develop near the Iowa/Minnesota border along the cold front, then push to the east and southeast, congealing into a bow echo. Thanks to the warm, moist airmass in place, it would continue to produce potentially damaging winds along its path and likely arrive here late Monday or very early Tuesday. There is the potential for the storms to produce winds of 80mph. "Potential" is obviously the key word in all of this.A few notes regarding the graphic: the colors represent the buoyancy I mentioned earlier - the energy available to produce thunderstorms. South of I-80, storm chances tomorrow afternoon are very small because of a warm layer aloft, known as a cap. It will act as a lid on the atmosphere to inhibit cloud development. North of I-80, the cap will be easier to overcome.
Now, if anything doesn't happen in just the right way, then the storm evolution will differ from what I'm currently thinking. Much of what happens tomorrow depends on what happens tonight.
3 comments:
justin, if this severe weather were to break out just right, what time is the most likely timeframe. I work til 7:30 p.m.
Looks like the front will move through Monday night/Tuesday morning... so I would imagine anytime after especially 6pm, the storm chance is there. Should have a better chance after 9pm.
So what do you think about our chances now that we know when the rain will move through
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