As a meteorologist I always look at the jet stream. You can think of it as a set of train tracks in the atmosphere. Like a train, storm systems have no choice but to follow the tracks. A wet weather pattern has locked into place across the Stateline with those "tracks" moving directly overhead. With dew points still in the 70s across the Midwest, there is plenty of fuel to reignite showers and thunderstorms over the next 48 hours.
Tonight, we could see a few more thunderstorms. The area I will be watching is over central Iowa. Several cells have popped up in the last couple of hours, which has prompted a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for southern Iowa until 11pm. It does not include any of our viewing area at this time. If these storms hold together we could run into another bout of heavy rainfall later this evening. -ADAM
19 comments:
When are you going to sleep?
I heard from someone awhile ago that you can sleep when you retire. Hopefully I don't have to wait that long...
Adam Painter
What is the chance of anything turning severe within the next 48 hrs basically?
The severe weather risk stands exactly where you said... a chance. It is not highly likely, though severe weather cannot be completely ruled out either. I am not overly concerned as a major severe weather outbreak is not anticipated. The main threat would be gusty winds from time to time with small hail, but the bigger problem is going to be the flooding concerns. The ground cannot soak up any more water. Therefore, it has nowhere to go except into problematic areas.
Adam Painter
what about chances of if/how much it will rain tonight?
And check out how much lightning there is in iowa right now... http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=DMX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&delay=50&scale=1&noclutter=1&showstorms=5&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=1
Des Moines radar
There i fixed it
Wow there is alot of it lol. I wish i wouldof seen that last night when it was going like crazy! I swear last night was the first time in years i couldn't get to sleep because of it.. It's like i got to sleep then bam i was awake within an hour or so! So needless to say i'm pretty tired tonight. Thankfully i didn't have a job to get up to just 3 kids lol. I love storms but i know we don't need anymore rain. Here in Winnebago not to much flooding, just a lil bit of standing water in spots like ditches and stuff. Our basement had a lil bit of water in it but only spotty areas. Our pool though we have one of those blow up ones with water, it was overflowing this morning! The rain made the water all yuckie!!
Theres an MD but just south of the viewing area.
What's an MD?
merocile discussion..sorry spelling is off lol..its basically where they talk about if there will be a watch issued for that area..it goes over how unstable the atmosphere is and other things..just click on storm prediction center off to the right side of the weatherblog then click on the MD and it will tell you why they may need a watch issued..
Heres the correct spelling..GEEZ i was WAYYYYYY off!!!
Mesoscale Discussions
oh believe me, last night, i got maybe about 50 mins of sleep because of all the lightning thunder and torrential rain. sounds like possibly another very stormy night.
Here we go again :(
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ILLINOIS...BOONE...COOK...
DE KALB...DUPAGE...FORD...GRUNDY...IROQUOIS...KANE...
KANKAKEE...KENDALL...LA SALLE...LAKE ILLINOIS...LEE...
LIVINGSTON...MCHENRY...OGLE...WILL AND WINNEBAGO. IN INDIANA...
BENTON...JASPER...LAKE INDIANA...NEWTON AND PORTER.
* THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
* HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROLL ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND SPEW HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE
REGION ONCE AGAIN. SATURATED GROUNDS WILL TAKE VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL BEFORE FLOODING BEGINS. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE FROM 3
TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
3-5 inches? wow. If that happens, it definately wont be good. I sleep very deep so i wont notice it.
And it looks like we're on our own for a while... as the 10 o'clock news is meteorologistless.
Eric used to do weather years and years ago so I think we are in capable hands!
well based on what i have read with forecast discussions, i think we may escape the torrential rain this time. it is saying that the heaviest may be south of I-80 and I-88. so up here, we will probably escape the torrents of last night. it said that they included us in the watch is because of the rains last night and that we are soaked, so they decided to include us.
It's raining hard in DeKalb right now. I'm only awake because the thunder woke me up.
The good news is that the thunderstorm complex south of Rockford is starting to fall apart as of 4am. The hardest hit areas from Monday night escaped the heaviest rainfall from Tuesday night. Also, as one knowledgeable poster said, Winnebago County was included in the Flash Flood Watch due to how saturated the ground already is, not from overnight precipitation estimations.
Adam Painter
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