10:00pm update - NGM model is out with a snowy solution for Friday night. Now I have to admit the NGM has the nickname "no good model" but it is really strengthening the low over Indiana. This brings a swath of snow to central and northern Illinois by early Saturday morning. If this was winter it would yield a solid 3-6 but even if this no-good solution is believable it would only be an inch/two snow (because the ground is so warm). -ES
Original post - An area of low pressure will develop along a cold front Friday afternoon. Our computer guidance suggests that this will rapidly strengthen and possibly produce some accumulating snows in the area by Saturday morning. We'll keep the snow potential under an inch but more consensus in the computer models tonight and tomorrow may allow us to either take this potential out or put more in. Stay tuned!
10:00pm update - NGM model is out with a snowy solution for Friday night. Now I have to admit the NGM has the nickname "no good model" but it is really strengthening the low over Indiana. This brings a swath of snow to central and northern Illinois by early Saturday morning. If this was winter it would yield a solid 3-6 but even if this no-good solution is believable it would only be an inch/two snow (because the ground is so warm). -ES
Original post - An area of low pressure will develop along a cold front Friday afternoon. Our computer guidance suggests that this will rapidly strengthen and possibly produce some accumulating snows in the area by Saturday morning. We'll keep the snow potential under an inch but more consensus in the computer models tonight and tomorrow may allow us to either take this potential out or put more in. Stay tuned!
4 comments:
Eric, is it possible to put the computer model link back on the blog page again for everyone to access it. Also when will the more reliable models come out for this possible mid november snow.
Let's just say there is a reason I haven't even looked at the NGM (No Good Model) in several years. It is about as useful as trying to predict the next 48 hours by sticking your head out the window.
What exactly is the "NGM"? Who is it made by?
The NGM is the Nested Grid Model (its name is based on how the model does stuff with data). There hasn't been any development on it in several years because the focus has shifted to other models that use more recent physics computations. In fact, the statistical output from the NGM is being phased out in the coming weeks. Some feel that's a mistake, because even though it's received no updates, it still is superior in some situations *because* its equations haven't been tinkered with.
Virtually every single computer model is run by NOAA.
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