Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Looking at the computer models












Here's a look at one of our computer models' raw output for Rockford. You can click on the image to enlarge it. I put labels in for the timeframe to help you get your bearing.

The first column is the wind direction and speed. (Wind direction is measured in degrees. 0° is straight out of the north, 90° is easterly, 180° is southerly, and 270° is due west to east. )

Next is the surface temperature followed by the type of precipitation.

The next column shows the water ratio of the snowfall. The higher the ratio (bigger difference between the first and second number) the lighter the weight of the snowflakes.

The |Snow| column is (you guessed it) the snowfall accumulation!

So, this model is giving us 3.90 inches of snow. If only forecasting snow was that easy! Problem here? The temperatures aren't going to be terribly cold so we can expect a lot of this snow to melt...at least early on. Once we get into the nighttime hours of Wed/Thu it'll begin piling up. Interestingly, this model shows another batch of snow just in time for pumpkin pie time on Thanksgiving. I don't think this will be anything more than a dusting...perhaps more likely flurries. I'd be extremely shocked to see the 1"+ inch of snow advertised.

Oh, the winter fun begins! Got your showbrushes ready? -ERIC

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