6:40pm CST - Here is the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center's (affectionately known as HPC) probability of precip (POP) map and the precipitation type probability map for this Saturday's storm. CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE
4:04pm CST - Rain and mountain snow continue to fall over the west coast of the U.S. this afternoon. Flash Flood Watches are in effect for the burn areas of Southern California where it may be cold enough for snow in the mountains north of L.A. This storm system will eject a shortwave into the Midwest for Thursday with some light snow and rain chances. The main low will traverse the Rockies on Friday and be out in the plains putting down snow and spawning thunderstorms for Texas.What happens for Saturday is still anyone's guess. The models are still pretty robust with a deepening low pressure center that tracks from the panhandle of Texas into Missouri and then over Lake Michigan. Southerly winds for Thursday and Friday will boost temps into the high 30s over Northern Illinois (which is pretty warm considering the organized snowpack). It is likely that this storm will produce rain for our area on Saturday. How much precip falls in the form of rain (before any switchover) is the million dollar variable here.
Travel impacts within a 100 mile radius won't be too big until Saturday evening and overnight. Luckily for us Christmas is on a Tuesday. Should we get a major winter storm, we'll have a sunny Monday to look forward to. -ERIC
12 comments:
Some of the models I looked at on the website I emailed eric, show the low forming over northern arkansas and moving thru southern indiana. If it did do that, would we be in a favorable area for heavy snow.
It will be interesting to see what the OOz models show tonight. What time do those results usually show up on here. The 12z model right now doesnt really show an organized low, just a lot of isobars.
Eric, I am curious, at this point, given the info you have, what would you say the chances are of a lot of snow for Sat/Sun? I REALLY want a lot of snow and a white Christmas. So I am really excited about the prospects of a good bit of snow.
Tony: If I speculated on every nuance of the models, I wouldn't have any more hair on my head! The models will wobble for another day or two before a clear definitive outlook can be made.
Daniel: (Not to skew our poll question but...) I think our chance of having a White Christmas is 90%. Even if we had 40° temperatures and an inch of rain on Saturday, we'd probably still have snow on the ground. Not to mention that even if this system skirts by us, we'll likely see SOME snow out of it. -ERIC
To tell u the truth, even if we lost some snow cover the next couple days, I think if we can get a few inches, I think we would have a white xmas. After christmas, I don't care if we get snow anymore.
Actually eric, haven't u said that once the storm actually hits land on the west coast, then the models would start getting a better idea as to what may happen. I hope we do get some snow, even though I work all weekend. I don't think I have ever posted this much in one blog thread.
Hey Eric- I'll be traveling from DeKalb to Missouri on friday, then throughout missouri on saturday, and back to DeKalb on sunday. Do you have any idea about how my travel will be? I tried looking up MO's weather from weather.com, but they say nothing of snow, but on your maps it says snow. Just curious, if you have the time to answer I would appreciate it, but I understand if you don't! Thanks!
Based on that map, looks like we would have freezing rain, I am guessing the OOz models are updating since it goes dark when I run over the hour mark for saturday. I am hoping for snow.
Looks like the newest data from the OOz model shows the low developing over southern illinois and tracking into michigan. I wonder it that means more snow now. Of course that is still subject to change.
Candice: Please put a .gov after weather instead of the .com. You'll get a much more accurate forecast. For instance if you want the NWS forecast for Rockford, you can type in weather.gov/rockford
For St. Louis it is weather.gov/stlouis
It's still too early to tell on snowfall amounts or possible impacts.
I know it is still too early since its only tuesday,but I am hoping the track stays favorable for more snow and less rain. Lets hope and pray.
It looks if this moves a few inches either way it will change everything. Okay well maybe more than a few inches. Im not gonna rely on a forecast this far in advance for changes in plans... even though I come back and check this all the time anyway. =/
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