Official Winter Forecast Coming Soon!

Heads up! On Monday 13WREX will release its official 2007/2008 Winter Forecast. Last year we saw a lot of success with a detailed forecast, so we're hoping for the same this year!

For the past few weeks I have been going through climate records of previous winters along with La Nina winters. I've also consulted with other Meteorologists in the Upper Midwest on their thoughts. We'll release the exclusive forecast on 13News at 5, 6, and 10 this Monday November 5th. Sure, it'll give the other stations time to scamper and put a forecast together, but trust me ours is coming with plenty of research.

And you can count on seeing it right here next Monday on the 13News Weather Blog. -ERIC

Happy Halloween!

It is finally here and it appears as though the weather is going to cooperate for all the trick or treaters across the Stateline. Cloud cover will be on the decrease late this afternoon as a cold front continues to head towards the Ohio Valley region. Temperatures won't be too bad for the early candy seekers, but we will cool into the 40s shortly after sunset which is at 5:52pm tonight. You might want to leave the streets by 8pm because a) it will be getting pretty chilly and b) that is when the ghouls start to emerge!

Speaking of predictions, I will go out on a sturdy limb and predict many stomach aches tonight for those that overload on the sweet stuff... -ADAM

Thank you!

We've had 130,000 page views on the 13News Weather Blog within the past year making it the Rockford area's most visited blog! We've had visitors from every continent except Antarctica (we're hoping to get some internet hits from there in the not-so-distant future).

So let me say "Thank you very much for stopping by!" and please tell your friends about it. We're committed to blogging the most relevant weather information you need and want.

Please don't forget that Adam, Gretchen, and I get a lot of our ideas from your comments and questions. Keep them coming no matter where you live! It's our way of making sure we're giving you what you want here on the blog.

The best thing about it? You'll never know what you're going to see next.

See you tomorrow with something new! -ERIC

Halloween Statistics

The normal high temperature for Halloween is 54°.
The warmest Halloween was in 1950 when it was 84°.
The coldest high temperature on Halloween is 32 degrees which occurred in 1917.
Last year, the high temperature was 51 degrees.


The normal low for Halloween is 35°.
The coldest Halloween occurred in 1925 when the temperature dipped to 14°.
The highest low temperature for Halloween was 62 degrees in 1974.
Last year, the low temperature was 30°.


Most Halloweens in Rockford are dry!
Only 3 times has over one inch of rain fallen on Halloween.

Last year, there was no rain or snow on Halloween.

Halloween Wildlife

Toads are not just a key ingredient in witches’ brew, they are important environmental indicators. All amphibians are susceptible to environmental toxins because of their sensitive skin. They are usually the first species to die out in polluted areas. If you have healthy toad populations in your area, it’s a good sign that your neighborhood is fairly unpolluted. And no, you cannot catch warts from touching a toad. Toads are voracious pest predators in the warm months, but go into underground hibernation by late fall and won’t emerge until spring.

Spiders, with their eight legs and multiple eyes, are creatures right out of nightmares—and their sticky webs and venomous fangs don’t help their public image either. But even though they might look scary, spiders are actually extremely beneficial predators of all sorts of insect pests. And only three species have venom considered strong enough to hurt people: the black widow, the brown recluse and the hobo. In the fall, female spiders are guarding egg sacks which hold the next generation of spiders.

The howl of the wolf can cause either heart-rending terror or spiritual inspiration. People have either vilified or glorified wolves throughout history, but the real life wild canines are neither hounds of hell or spiritual guides. In reality, gray wolves are top predators that play a key role in balancing the ecosystem. They control deer and other prey populations as well as other predators lower down on food chain, like coyotes and raccoons. Once found throughout North America, the only remaining gray wolf populations live in the northern United States and Canada. At this time of year, they are in the process of growing their thick winter coats to guard against winter’s bitter temperatures.

The slithering, legless body. The forked tongue. The lidless eyes. Everything about a snake is decidedly non-human. But even though they strike fear in many people, most snake species are completely harmless. In fact, snakes are enormously beneficial, helping to control insect and rodent pests. The only time a snake will try to bite is if it’s cornered or startled. The natural reaction of all snakes to people is to get away or hide. By late October, most snakes are moving to their underground hibernation grounds, where they will doze away the cold months waiting for the warmer days of spring.

Hurricane threat decreases this time of year

Even though hurricane season doesn't officially end until the end of November, tropical storms and hurricanes have been known to form right up to the end. As we watch Noel churn off of Florida's southeast coast the threat of Noel gaining hurricane status is slim to none...and climatology has a lot to do with it.

The peak of hurricane season is early September when winds in all levels of the atmosphere are at their slowest in the Northern Hemisphere. This allows the storms to form and move west...then curving north around Bermuda High Pressure. This time of year it's different. Mid-latitude winds are increasing...providing the storm with shear. (Think of it as a hair cut with a little off the top.) It's harder for storms to get this far north, especially when you can get cold fronts down south into Florida. With Noel, we expect the circulation to get caught up in an old cold front, eventually getting a big push which will bring Noel back into the Atlantic where it'll die out.

Raindrops: Few and Far Between

Over the next seven days 3 separate cold fronts are set to cross the Stateline. One would think we would be in for a couple of soaking rains, but instead we will be staying mostly dry over the next seven days. These cold fronts will be moving rapidly across the United States. This rapid movement won't allow the wind directions to change much. Overall, we will be stuck in a northwesterly flow. With no major moisture source to the northwest, many area rain gauges will be collecting cobwebs. Unless we get a kick of moisture rich air from the Gulf of Mexico on southerly winds, these cold fronts will do nothing more than knock our temperatures back temporarily. To wrap up the timing issue, the three fronts will move through Wednesday, Friday night, and Monday respectively. -ADAM

Halloween Bench Cam???

Okay, it's been a while since we had fun with the "Bench Cam." (If you want to see how it works, click on the video on the right hand side of this page.)

Here's what I want you to do: Get your kids out of the house in their Halloween costumes and stop by for the 6 o'clock newscasts TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY. (You might want to have a cell phone so you can talk to someone at home watching so you'll know when you're on. Our main weather segment is usually around 6:10pm.) Please no offensive costumes...if there's anything questionable you won't get on and that would ruin it for everyone else.

The Bench is on the north side of State Street on the northwest corner of Water Street. Our camera is located on top of the Rockford Register Star tower. Also, post a comment if you're going and we'll know who to look for. We could have a lot of fun with this!

Here's a look at your official 13News Halloween Forecast. Don't forget to check out our local trick or treat times on the right side of the page.

Noel: Bahamas Beach Bum

Here's the latest advisory on Tropical Storm Noel. The storm's not terribly organized, but squally weather is expected to continue for one more day in the Domincan Republic and Haiti before this storm heads up into the Bahamas.

This storm will drift northwest and interact with a cold front over Florida and be lifted northeast away from land.

Next Frontal Passage

The next frontal boundary set to cross the Stateline should be moving through around lunchtime on Halloween. Typically when a cold front moves through, rain can be expected. This might not be the case on Wednesday. The reasoning is that the Gulf of Mexico moisture will be locked up and this storm system won't have any fuel (moisture) to work with. A few spots in Wisconsin might see some light showers, but for the most part this change in air masses will occur with very few fireworks. We may see a slight increase in cloud cover, but at worst I would still call it partly sunny. On the other hand, I will still go out on a sturdy limb and predict a high probability of ghosts and goblins during the evening hours Wednesday night! -ADAM

You think it's easy forecasting the weather here?

It's not...but imagine if we had cloud patterns like this! The New Horizons spacecraft took some stunning images of Jupiter earlier this year while on the way out to Pluto. For an in-depth explanation of the clouds, click here. And as always you can click on the image to enlarge.

Simply spectacular!

Merging traffic on Friday

A cut-off area of low pressure is now on the move north from Memphis. It'll bring the clouds and a few intermittent showers to the Rockford area on Friday. However this system won't be around long as a cold front sweeps down from Manitoba. These two systems will work together nicely to bring down some cold air for the weekend.

Temperatures will be very chilly for the Halloween Costume Parties on Saturday night. We may be down below freezing for early Sunday morning.

Weather improves for California's Wildfires

Weather conditions will improve in Southern California on Friday, but the air will be very hazardous for places like Bakersfield, Fresno, and Merced as the air moves north from the fire-stricken area. You can see how the air will now have more of a marine influence. They'll see more humidity in Southern California in coming days. -ERIC

Peak Fall Colors Right Now

In case you've been stuck inside lately, we are in the middle of peak colors for fall foliage across the Stateline. Be sure to get outside and soak it in, because these leaves will all be falling within the next couple of weeks. The weather for viewing the colors should be optimal this afternoon, the majority of Saturday, and then all day Sunday. In between, Friday looks a little dicey with mostly cloudy conditions and a little bit of drizzle. -ADAM

We've Been Spoiled

If you think it has been cold during the morning commute lately, you haven't felt anything yet. The statistic in this graphic shows just how spoiled we have been so far this Fall. Chicago-Rockford International Airport has yet to record a freezing temperature during this Fall season. The last time we lasted this late into October without a hard frost is not years, but decades ago. You have to remember back 34 years to 1973 for the last time it stayed above the freezing mark this long. In 1973, the first hard freeze occurred on November 4th, which is an indicator that our first hard freeze is probably right around the corner. -ADAM

CNN's "Planet in Peril"

CNN introduced a documentary-series on climate change last night called "Planet in Peril". (It re-airs tonight at 8.)

I plan on watching it tonight and will blog more about it later. Did you see it? What did you think? If you didn't get a chance to watch the show, you can click here for more video. (image courtesy: CNN)

Satellite Animation of the California Wildfires

Take a look at this awesome animation of the cloud plume being thrown westward from the California wildfires!

Howl-o-ween is a week away!

Kate Nelson sent me these pictures of her Chocolate and Black Labs named Bailey and Lily. I thought these cute pictures would be a good reminder to keep our pets warm now that the cooler weather has moved in.

The final picture was sent to me by Morgan Palmer of KLTV in Tyler, Texas. He judged the local pet-costume contest and Jennifer won with her dog Fiona dressed as a Dallas Cowboys Cheerleader.

Are you dressing up your four legged friend this Halloween???

Weather on the Road!

I would like to say "Thank you!" to the faculty and fourth graders at May Elementary School in Rochelle for allowing me to visit today!

I hope the kids had just as wonderful of a time talking about weather as I did. Each student was very attentive and polite and I have a hunch that in the future we may see one of these kids right here on Channel 13 giving the weather.

Thanks again!

Eric Sorensen
Chief Meteorologist
WREX-TV

Where do tornadoes come from?

Andre from May Elementary School in Rochelle asks "Where do tornadoes come from?" Andre, tornadoes come as a result of wind shear within the atmosphere. Wind shear is when the winds at the ground are moving at a right angle to the winds within the clouds. The closer you can get to that 90° right angle, the higher the shear! In the first picture you can see how this shear creates a "spiraling" of the wind within the cloud. Now, as the cloud continues to grow taller, the wind blowing upward into the cloud can tilt that spiral...forming a tornado.

A lot of people believe that valleys, cities, and mountains offer protection from tornadoes. Because a tornado is born from a cloud, this simply isn't true. They can touch down anywhere in the United States (but mostly in Tornado Alley in spring). Great question! -ERIC

Why is the sky blue?

Eder from May Elementary School in Rochelle asks "Why is the sky blue?" To answer this question Eder, we have to first understand the light that is coming from the sun. A famous scientist by the name of Isaac Newton was first to figure out that the sun is giving us all colors of the spectrum (rainbow). We see the light as "white" because all of the colors are combined. However, when this "white light" hits our atmosphere, the light is scattered. Because blue light is shortest in wavelength, more of it fills the sky and we perceive the sky as blue. Because red, orange, and yellow are longer in wavelength than blue, the sky changes color as the sun sets (and the sun rises).

That's an age old question that many kids ask their parents. Now, there's no excuse not to know! Thanks Eder! -ERIC

Mmm... Spaghetti

A spaghetti plot is a meteorological method of viewing data from many different models. Yesterday at noon and again this morning I made a spaghetti plot of the potential storm track of an area of low pressure that could impact us by Friday. I drew on the paths that three different models believed this rainmaker would take. The light pink line is the ECMWF model, the red line is the GFS model, and the hot pink line is the NAM model.

When looking at spaghetti plots a forecaster would like to see a recognizable pattern. This would show agreement between the different pieces of data and typically increase the confidence in a believed scenario. When the different models disagree distinctively (like yesterday at noon) the plot resembles a plate of spaghetti, with lines strewn everywhere.

The graphic above is the plot I built this morning. It shows that the models are starting to come together a bit more. This is making me believe that our chances for rain on Friday and Saturday are fairly good, which is why raindrops were added to the 7 day outlook for those corresponding days this morning. -ADAM

Fires fueled by Santa Ana Wind

Here's a live map of the California wildfires. (courtesy: Google)

KFMB-TV in San Diego has great coverage on their website including the addresses and maps of houses burned. I would encourage you to look at their site to get an idea of the scope of these fires.

The fires are caused by a Santa Ana Wind. That occurs when high pressure strengthens up in Nevada. In response to the rising pressure, winds increase around the high, blowing from the northeast to southwest over Southern California.

Notice how the L.A. area is surrounded by mountains (to the north and east). As the wind rises to higher elevations the air dries out. Then the dry air falls into the L.A. metro and speeds up fanning fires. There are dozens of fires burning out of control tonight, many in urban areas. One of the problems with these events is the fact that this is one of the fastest growing places on earth. More rural hillsides are dotted with million dollar homes. So, it appears that this news story will be repeated in the years to come. The good news? Santa Ana winds will go away by Wednesday.

Did you know? Winds that downslope from the Rockies into the Midwest are called "Chinook Winds." This wind direction often brings strong warm-ups for us in the winter months. -ERIC

It's cold here, but it could be worse!

Take a look at these snowy pictures (courtesy of KUSA-TV) from this weekend. It was Denver's first snow of the 2007/2008 season. And a reminder to our bloggers from the Midwest...these scenes are common here in late October/early November as well. However, no snow is in our forseeable future.

Merely a Dust Settler

Today's rainmaker will be nothing more than a "dust settler". We should be able to squeeze out just enough raindrops to settle the dust across the Stateline and that is about it. As of 9am, a few light showers and sprinkles were falling over eastern Iowa. This sparse activity will be moving through the region late this morning and into the afternoon hours. Rainfall totals will range from a trace to just a few hundreths of an inch. The image to the left is a 6 hour precipitation estimate between 1pm and 7pm today from the GFS model. As you can see, it shows the heavy rainfall will be staying well to the south of us. -ADAM

Severe weather threat has ended

As of 5:00pm CDT, the Rockford Metropolitan area is now out of the risk of severe. The atmospheric conditions that once held a chance for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes have expired. Instability is decreasing and the sun is setting. Any storms will have a very tough time gaining momentum from here on out. -ERIC

Analyzing the Satellite Photographs

Tornado Watches are in effect north and east of the Rockford metro. Looking at the visible satellite photographs you can clearly see the towering thunderstorms that are developing in Southeastern Wisconsin. A few towers are noted in far NW Indiana as well. This has prompted the issuance of the new Tornado Watch for the IL/IN stateline. The storm development zone is highlighted in green. Storm motion will be to the northeast at 50mph.

Yesterday I forecasted the potential for severe between noon and five...we're quickly coming up to the end of that. We should be able to give the all-clear here in the next hour. -ERIC

Tornado Watch issued for Chicagoland

This new watch covers the Chicagoland area until 11pm, but does NOT affect any counties in our coverage area. A few showers are trying to form in Northern Illinois as of 3:30pm...but are having a hard time developing solid cloud-towers due to the strong wind shear in the atmosphere. Will continue to monitor, but still feel that severe likelihood is dwindling. -ERIC

Tornado Watch until 10:00pm

Tornado Watch has been issued for Green, Rock, and Walworth County in Southern Wisconsin until 10pm.

Storms will continue to develop right along the IL/WI stateline through 5pm...and quickly move northeast.

A few storms may still form east of I-39 in Northern Illinois through sunset. The cold front/dryline is moving through the Rockford metro area as of 3:00pm which brings to an end the severe weather threat here.